NFL fans are treated to an AFC East rivalry to close out the action in Week 1 with the Bills traveling to MetLife Stadium to take on the Jets. The reigning AFC East champions are 2.5 point road favorites against Aaron Rodgers and the rest of this year’s stars from Hard Knocks.
Sports Illustrated already highlighted the best bets and predictions for this Monday Night Football matchup but the purpose of this article is to focus on Player Props.
The oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook may have the hometown Jets as the underdogs but it seems they are predicting a close game with just a 2.5 point spread. The Over/Under is set at 45.5, which is the middle of the pack compared to the rest of the games in Week 1. When evaluating player props, the spread and point total are key factors as it helps identify the pace of play and game-script the oddsmakers project. Considering this is a relatively average Over/Under with a back-and-forth tight game, none of the player props we’ll identify have offensive playmakers expected to hit egregious stats. Instead, we’ll focus on a few key players that we know perform well, even in tough or close matchups.
Anytime TD scorers is a great way to get plus-money on your bets. Josh Allen (+220) offers a solid return on investment. Willing bettors need to risk $100 on each player for the opportunity to profit $220 if Allen runs or catches a touchdown. In two games against the Jets in 2022, Allen rushed for three touchdowns.
On the Jets side of the ball, new quarterback Aaron Rodgers has a tendency to lock on to his top receiver and pepper him with targets, thus Garrett Wilson at +188 to score is very enticing.
Anytime Touchdown Bets:
Garrett Wilson +188
Josh Allen +220
Week 1 provides an excellent opportunity for bettors to take advantage of the oddsmakers incomplete algorithm that spits out over/under stat lines based on season averages. Well in Week 1, those "algos" have no relevant data for this season. Case in point, James Cook's receiving total is 14.5.
Cook is now the Bills’ primary running back and unlike his other teammates in the backfield, is the only viable threat in Buffalo’s passing game. Our projections indicate Cook is more in line for 22.5 receiving yards, which is eight yards above what the sportsbooks project. We’ll be hammering the over at -125 (risk $125 to profit $100).
We mentioned before Rodgers’ inclination to pepper a primary receiver with opportunities and thus we’ve set our eyes on both Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards and receptions. His Over/Under for catches sits at 5.5 at with the over -133 and his yards total is 68.5 with the over at -120. Wilson played in all 17 games as a rookie but only started in 12 and still finished with an eye-popping 83 catches for 1,103 yards which equates to a 13.3 yards per reception average. But those stats came with Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White under-center. Now with a future Hall-of-Famer at quarterback in Rodgers, Wilson’s already impressive stats will take a leap to the next level.
Rushing/Receiving Yards Bets:
James Cook Over 14.5 receiving yards
Garrett Wilson Over 68.5 receiving yards
Garrett Wilson Over 5.5 receptions.
Each week I like to take one bet or player prop that has an implied probability of 20% or lower (typically +400 or greater). I wager much less than my other bets, after all it’s called a lotto-ticket for a reason, I don’t expect it to hit but do like to have some action on the unexpected because of the huge payout if it, by chance, comes to fruition.
For Week 1, my lotto ticket bet is Aaron Rodgers anytime touchdown at +700. Like Josh Allen’s anytime touchdown mentioned above, this does not include a passing touchdown. Quarterbacks have to run (or catch) a TD in order for this bet to cash. Jets running backs Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook are both capable goal-line rushers but Rodgers still has plenty of mobility left in his arsenal. When a play breaks down, he and his teammates don’t yet have that same chemistry Rodgers had with his teammates in Green Bay of knowing where he likes to roll, scramble, or shift his throws. So I’m expecting the need for Rodgers to take off once near the goal-line and bring it in himself.
Remember, small wager on these lotto tickets!
MNF Week 1 Lotto Ticket Player Prop:
Aaron Rodgers anytime TD +700.
