As Unai Emery builds towards his third full season in charge of Aston Villa, the future of Ollie Watkins looms large.
With Manchester United heavily linked with a move for the England international and Villa walking a tightrope with Profit and Sustainability Regulations (PSR), the club may be forced into tough decisions this summer.
Watkins, fresh off the back of a third straight Premier League season with 15 or more goals, has become an indispensable figure at Villa Park.
However, the lure of a new challenge could test both his loyalty and the club’s resolve.
To keep their accounts in order, Villa have already sanctioned the €77m (£64m) sale of Jhon Durán and are now weighing up offers for Emiliano Martínez.
Yet any replacement for Watkins would need to be more than a stopgap – they’d need to match his work rate, creativity, and eye for goal.
As Villa look to avoid a post-Watkins drop-off, attention has turned to one of the Bundesliga’s brightest talents, a striker whose profile mirrors that of Watkins in both style and output.
Aston Villa seeking Watkins successor
According to German outlet BILD Aston Villa have identified RB Leipzig’s Loïs Openda as a key target should Watkins leave this summer.
Journalist Sacha Tavolieri reported that Villa are monitoring the Belgian striker closely, and Openda is understood to be open to a move to the Premier League – though no formal talks have taken place.
The 25-year-old is under contract at Leipzig until 2028 and has a release clause of €80m.
However, BILD reports that a fee of around €70m (£60m) could be enough to tempt the Bundesliga side into selling, if Villa were to lodge a bid, particularly in light of their disappointing 2023/24 campaign.
While Openda has not formally asked to leave, sources close to the club suggest he has expressed frustration behind the scenes – especially as key teammates Xavi Simons and Benjamin Šeško are also linked with summer exits.
Phillipe Clement, who managed Openda at Club Brugge, has no doubts about the striker’s suitability for top-level football.
“He’s super-fast but he also has an eye for goal and will be decisive,” he said. “In difficult times, he’s someone who remains combative. That’s an important quality in life and as a player.”
With Openda valued highly by Leipzig, who paid €40m (£34m) to sign him from Lens in 2023, any move would depend heavily on Watkins’ future.
Why Openda could be the perfect Watkins successor
According to FBref, Openda is one of the most statistically similar players to Watkins in Europe’s top five leagues. On closer inspection, the comparison holds up well.
Goals
16
9
Assists
8
5
Total
24
14
Openda’s non-penalty expected goals (8.2) were not far off Watkins’ (13.2), and both maintained strong conversion rates – Openda netting nine non-penalty goals to Watkins’ 14.
The Belgian also excels in areas that Villa fans have grown to expect from their lead striker. His progressive carries per 90 minutes (2.12) edge Watkins’ (1.90), and he creates more shot-creating actions (2.42 vs. 1.84).
He also attempts and completes more passes per 90 (13.8 vs. 10.6), though Watkins boasts the better pass completion rate (72.4% to 63.8%).
In front of goal, the differences are subtle.
Watkins slightly edges Openda in shots per 90 (2.84 vs. 2.82) and shots on target per 90 (1.25 vs. 1.14), but both players hover around the same shot-on-target percentage — 43.9% for Watkins, 40.3% for Openda.
Perhaps most intriguing is Openda’s dribbling output. He completes 0.81 successful take-ons per 90 compared to Watkins’ 0.35, with a higher success rate (29.7% to 24.4%).
While not elite figures, they show Openda’s willingness to beat defenders, an attribute Emery may want more of from his next No.9.
There are areas where Watkins still holds the edge. He wins the ball more in the attacking third (0.14 tackles per 90 compared to Openda’s 0.07) and has better discipline and decision-making in link-up play.
But Openda’s progressive passing distance (36.5 yards per 90) compared to Watkins’ 22.7 suggests greater vertical intent, something Emery’s side could lean into more, especially in Europe.
With 27 Belgium caps to his name, Openda isn’t just a runner or a poacher.
He’s a complete modern forward.
Dynamic, intelligent, and tactically flexible enough to play wide if needed.
If Watkins were to leave, replacing him would be no easy task. But in Loïs Openda, Villa may have found the closest thing to a like-for-like successor.
A forward who mirrors Watkins’ strengths but brings additional tools that Emery could sharpen even further.
Transfer Focus
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Villa have proved savvy in the market under Emery, blending data-led recruitment with tactical clarity.
Should they pull off a deal for Openda, it could prove one of the most pivotal transfers of their Europa League campaign and another sign of the club’s growing ambition.
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